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GlobalData: Eli Lilly’s Weight Loss Drug Zepbound Will Sell $4.1 Billion in The U.S. in 2031

Dec 15, 2023

Weight loss drugs

 

Weight loss drugs are drugs that have the effect of weight loss. At present, the weight loss drugs in clinical use include glucagon-like-peptide-1 (GLP-1), orlistat, lorcaserin hydrochloride, topiramate (Qsymia), phentermine, and etc.According to a recent report by data analytics from GlobalData, sales of Zepbound, a weight loss drug just approved by Eli Lilly, will reach $4.1 billion in sales in the United States alone by 2031.

 

On 8 November 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that it approved Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide injection for long-term weight management under the trade name "Zepbound", which is benchmarked against the Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy.

 

These two drugs, from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk respectively, can reduce the patient's appetite and food intake when used, and Wegovy and Zepbound are also suitable for type 2 diabetes.

 

Eli Lilly plans to officially launch the product by the end of the year, priced at around $1,060 per month, which is 20% less than Wegovy.According to a report by GlobalData, Zepbound will reach $4.1 billion in sales in the U.S. by 2031. However, this projected level may be only half that of Novo Nordisk Wegovy. In October, GlobalData predicted that Wegovy's sales in the U.S. would reach $8.1 billion by 2031.Novo Nordisk's diabetes drug of Ozempic and Eli Lilly's competitor of Mounjaro had global sales of $8.6 billion and $482.5 million, respectively, in 2022.

 

Fierce competition

 

Sara Reci, senior pharmaceutical industry analyst at GlobalData, noted that Zepbound is Eli Lilly's first drug to target obesity and its addition will challenge Novo Nordisk Wegovy's status as the gold standard therapy. Reci added, "The competition between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk for patient share in this indication is expected to be intense and worth watching. "

 

GlobalData also noted that despite barriers such as lack of insurance coverage and capacity constraints, the focus of pharmaceutical companies on effective weight loss drugs will drive the size of the U.S. weight loss drug market to $27.6 billion by 2031.Other major drugmakers in the development of weight loss drugs include Pfizer and Amgen. In addition, AstraZeneca signed an agreement worth up to $2 billion with Chinese biotechnology company Eccogene to co-develop an oral, once-daily GLP-1 receptor agonist for weight loss.